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Updated Nov. 12, 2026, 7:10 AM PT. The model numbers below are from The Sports Hangover model’s Wednesday, Nov. 11, run at about 9:19 AM PT, before Friday’s injury reports. The cover percentage applies only to the line used in that run: Tennessee +10.5. We'll refresh this post after Friday’s reports, and again if the line moves.
This post covers the Sunday, Nov. 15, 10:00 AM PT block of NFL Week 10. Seven games kick off in that window, per the NFL.com Week 10 schedule. Only one side in that block reached the 56% cover bar the model uses before it flags a play: the Tennessee Titans at +10.5 at home against the Jacksonville Jaguars. The earlier Munich game is covered in our Patriots-Lions Munich preview, and every Sunday kickoff time is in our NFL Week 10 schedule and TV guide.
Jaguars at Titans: kickoff, records and rest
Jacksonville visits Tennessee at Nissan Stadium in Nashville at 10:00 AM PT (1:00 PM ET) on FOX, per the NFL.com Jaguars-Titans game center and ESPN’s listing. ESPN has Jacksonville at 6-2 and Tennessee at 1-7 as of Thursday morning.
The schedules set up a rest gap. Tennessee had its bye in Week 9 and last played on Sunday, Nov. 1, a 43-36 loss at Cincinnati, per the ESPN Titans schedule. Jacksonville last played on Thursday night, Nov. 5, when it won 33-10 at Baltimore. The model’s inputs flag Tennessee coming off a bye with a rest edge at home.
The Titans and Jaguars at Nissan Stadium, Nov. 30, 2025. Photo: Walker Kinsler, 2025 Nissan Stadium photo on Wikimedia Commons, CC BY-SA 4.0.
Can the Titans cover +10.5 against the Jaguars?
As of 7:04 AM PT Thursday, Nov. 12, DraftKings, as listed on the ESPN Jaguars-Titans odds page, has Jacksonville -10.5 (-112) / Tennessee +10.5 (-108) and a total of 46.5 (over -110, under -110). The moneyline is Jacksonville -535, Tennessee +400. The spread number matches the +10.5 the model used on Wednesday. New to these terms? Start with our point spread explainer.
The Wednesday, Nov. 11, 9:19 AM PT run had Tennessee +10.5 with a 56.87% shrunk cover probability, the third-highest of the week and the only 10 AM side at or above 56%. The checks disagree: the second rating, built on unit-level efficiency, does not back Tennessee at this number. That split is the main reason to treat this as a thin read.
What could change before Sunday
The model run came before any Sunday team had a full official injury report. Friday’s reports and game statuses could move this number, and so could a line move off +10.5. If either happens, the 56.87% figure no longer applies, and we'll update this post. The NFL.com Week 10 injury reports are the place to check.
How to read the model number
The model simulates each game 20,000 times and pulls its raw result toward the market, which is the shrunk number shown here. Sides at 56% or higher get flagged. That bar is only a label, and it does not measure confidence. In its 2021-25 backtest, the model went 48.7% against the spread versus closing lines. There is no proven edge, and cover percentages are not calibrated. No wagers were placed.
These are model estimates only. They are not guarantees or betting advice, and there is no proven edge. Lines move, and the cover percentage is tied to the line shown. For research and entertainment only. 21+ only. Sports betting is not legal in every state. Check your local laws. Help is available from the National Council on Problem Gambling and 1-800-GAMBLER.
Problem gambling? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.
Featured photo: the Jacksonville Jaguars offense against the Tennessee Titans, Dec. 13, 2020, by the Tennessee Titans, 2020 game still on Wikimedia Commons, CC BY 3.0.
