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Updated Nov. 12, 2026, 3:55 AM PT. The model numbers below are from The Sports Hangover model’s Wednesday, Nov. 11, run at about 9:19 AM PT, before Friday’s injury reports. The cover percentages apply only to the lines used in that run: New England +2.5 and Dallas +4.5. We will refresh this post after Friday’s reports, and again if the lines move.
Two Sunday games from the Week 10 slate are in focus here. That run shows a small edge or none on each, and the checks disagree on both. First, the New England Patriots face the Detroit Lions in a neutral-site game at FC Bayern Munich Stadium (Allianz Arena) in Munich, Germany. Kickoff is 6:30 AM PT (9:30 AM ET, 3:30 PM CET) on FOX, per the NFL.com Week 10 schedule and the NFL.com game center. New England is 5-4. Detroit is 6-2. Later, the San Francisco 49ers visit the Dallas Cowboys at AT&T Stadium in Arlington, Texas, at 1:25 PM PT (4:25 PM ET) on FOX, per the same schedule and the 49ers-Cowboys game center. San Francisco is 7-1. Dallas is 4-5. For kickoff times across the Sunday slate, see our NFL Week 10 schedule.
Can the Patriots cover +2.5 against the Lions?
The Wednesday model run used New England +2.5. As of 3:50 AM PT Thursday, Nov. 12, DraftKings, as listed on the ESPN odds page, still has Detroit -2.5 / New England +2.5 (Detroit -120, New England +100) and a total of 51.5 (over +100, under -120). The same ESPN listing shows the DraftKings opener as Detroit -1.5 / New England +1.5 and a total of 48.5. The spread number has not moved since that model run. If you’re new to these terms, start with our point spread explainer or our guide to moneyline bets.
The Sports Hangover model’s Wednesday, Nov. 11, 9:19 AM PT run had New England +2.5 with a 52.8% shrunk cover probability. That is below the 56% bar the model uses before it flags a play, so the model did not flag it. The checks disagree: the second rating favors Detroit. There is no proven edge, and cover percentages are not calibrated. No wagers were placed.
Can the Cowboys cover against the 49ers?
The Wednesday model run used Dallas +4.5. As of 3:50 AM PT Thursday, Nov. 12, DraftKings, as listed on the ESPN odds page, has San Francisco -3.5 / Dallas +3.5 (San Francisco -115, Dallas -105) and a total of 55.5 (over -118, under -102). The same ESPN listing shows the DraftKings opener as Dallas -1.5 / San Francisco +1.5 and a total of 52.5. The current DraftKings number is a point shorter than the +4.5 the model used, so the 50.6% figure below does not apply to today’s DraftKings line.
The same Wednesday run had Dallas +4.5 with a 50.6% shrunk cover probability. That is under the 56% bar, so the model did not flag it. The checks disagree, and the second rating favors San Francisco strongly. There is no proven edge, and cover percentages are not calibrated. No wagers were placed.
These are model estimates only. They are not guarantees or betting advice, and there is no proven edge. Lines move, and the cover percentage is tied to the line shown. For research and entertainment only. 21+. Sports betting is not legal in every state. Check your local laws. Help is available from the National Council on Problem Gambling and 1-800-GAMBLER.
Problem gambling? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.
Featured photo: Drake Maye (10) of the New England Patriots, Nov. 3, 2024, at Nissan Stadium, by the Tennessee Titans via Wikimedia Commons, CC BY 3.0.
