21+ only. Problem gambling? Call 1-800-GAMBLER. Sports betting is not legal in every state. Check your local laws. For research and entertainment only. 21+. Not betting advice.
Seattle starts Josh Jones at left tackle tonight with Charles Cross out, per the Seahawks.com Oct. 31 injury update linked below.
Updated Mon., Nov. 2, 2026. Lines and model numbers were pulled at 3:49 AM PT Mon., Nov. 2. They will move before kickoff; recheck them yourself.
These are estimates from The Sports Hangover model, not guarantees. In a 2021-25 backtest the model went 48.7% against closing lines, so it has no proven edge. At the listed prices, a bet needs about 50.5% to break even at -102 and 52.8% at -112.
The Bears visit the Seahawks on Monday Night Football at 5:15 PM PT (Bears.com 2026 schedule, Seahawks.com game schedule).
What the model says about Bears +3 to +3.5
- Lines as of 3:49 AM PT Monday: Action Network consensus SEA -3.5 (-111) / CHI +3.5 (-112); DraftKings CHI +3 (-102).
- Model estimate: Chicago covers against the spread at +3 about 61.3% of the time, with a 3.1% chance of a push. At +3.5 the estimate is 64.4%.
- Our unit-EPA model disagrees and has Chicago covering only 47.8%.
Lumen Field. Photo: PCN02WPS via Wikimedia Commons, CC BY-SA 4.0. Converted to black and white and cropped.
Seattle without Charles Cross
Seattle ruled out left tackle Charles Cross (ankle), along with receiver Rashid Shaheed (knee) and running back Velus Jones Jr. (hamstring), and listed outside linebacker Uchenna Nwosu (ankle) as doubtful, per the Seahawks.com Oct. 31 injury update. Coach Mike Macdonald said Josh Jones will play left tackle, and that running back Zach Charbonnet will make his 2026 debut. Earlier in the week, Macdonald said of Cross, "we're going to take it day by day from there" (Seahawks.com earlier Cross update). Seattle added guard Quenton Nelson in a trade with the Colts (Seahawks.com Nelson trade announcement; our Quenton Nelson trade story). Seattle is coming off a 20-3 win over the Chiefs.
Chicago injuries and returns
Chicago has running back Kyle Monangai out, and linebacker D'Marco Jackson and defensive back Malik Muhammad questionable. Linebacker T.J. Edwards returns from a hamstring injury, per the Bears.com Edwards injury update. Defensive lineman Montez Sweat's suspension was lifted on Oct. 23 (Bears.com transactions). Defensive lineman Jeffery Simmons, acquired from the Titans, is set to play his first Bears game Monday night in Seattle (Bears.com Simmons introduction; our Jeffery Simmons trade episode).
What the model does not price
- This model run does not account for Chicago's Jeffery Simmons trade or Seattle's Quenton Nelson trade.
- The model only prices players listed Out or Doubtful, so anyone listed Questionable isn't priced.
- The model not reacting to these doesn't mean they don't matter.
Photo in header: SounderBruce via Wikimedia Commons, CC BY-SA 4.0. Converted to black and white, cropped, with a text overlay.
Sources: lines from Action Network consensus and DraftKings, pulled 3:49 AM PT Mon., Nov. 2. Model estimates by The Sports Hangover. For research and entertainment only. 21+. Not betting advice.
21+ only. Problem gambling? Call 1-800-GAMBLER or visit 1-800-GAMBLER help resources and the NCPG problem gambling help. Sports betting is not legal in every state. Check your local laws.
