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For research and entertainment only. 21+. Not betting advice.
Updated Nov. 6, 2026. Lines and model numbers below are from The Sports Hangover model using Bonk lines Nov. 6, 2026, 3:55:39 AM PT. Official Friday injury designations were not posted yet at that cutoff. This uses Thursday practices plus verified overnight news. Lines may still move.
The Sports Hangover Week 9 Sunday model card leads with Jets +9.5 at Kansas City. That side agrees at both the Bonk line and the live line in this early Friday pull. The featured Sunday four below are the agreement-based group: NYJ, WAS, NYG, and IND. Cover percentages are model estimates only. The backtest went 48.7% against closing lines, so there is no proven edge, cover percentages are not calibrated, and no wagers were placed.
Thursday Night Football is already final and is excluded from this weekend slate. Jacksonville beat Baltimore 33-10, and JAX -9.5 covered by 13.5. That Thursday block was a coin-flip and a pass in the research write-up, not a posted pick, so it is not graded as a pick win here. For the pregame research notes, see our Jaguars at Ravens TNF research post. Final: Jaguars game report.
Featured Sunday four that agree at Bonk and live
These four sides agree on unit-EPA versus the Elo cover vote at Bonk, and they remain the conservative Sunday group after omitting LV. Numbers are adjusted cover estimates from the Nov. 6, 3:55:39 AM PT pull.
- NYJ +9.5 — Bonk 58.22%; live +10 also 58.22%. Agrees at both lines. This is the lead side for the card.
- WAS +5.5 — Bonk 58.95%; live moved to +4.5 at 55.93%. Agrees at Bonk. That live move is not a separate recommendation.
- NYG −3 — Bonk 58.06%; live −3.5 also 58.06%. Agrees at both lines.
- IND +5.5 — Bonk and live both +5.5 at 56.59%. Agrees at both lines. This is the agreement-based alternate that replaces ARI in the conservative four.
ARI and LV: watch list, not the lead
Arizona’s 66.67% figure is not the lead on this card. ARI +11.5 shows 66.67% at the stale Bonk number, but the live line is +8.5 at 56.38% after Sam Darnold was ruled out and Drew Lock starts, per Yahoo’s Week 9 injury tracker. Unit-EPA disagrees with the Elo cover vote on that side. The 66.67% is stale pool value at the older Bonk number. That +11.5 price is no longer available.
LV +9.5 shows 59.39% at Bonk and live, but unit-EPA disagrees, so it is omitted from the featured Sunday four.
Where lines moved or unit-EPA disagrees, this card stays cautious.
Other flags from the same Friday pull
Soft worse-across-3 flags only: DEN −3 versus live −2.5, and PHI +3 versus live +3.5. No worse-across-7 sides in this run. Elevated wind flags appear on ARI at SEA and GB at NE. Several DNPs are unpriced, and the Browns quarterback situation remains unpriced pending confirmation. Injury context for Thursday’s league updates is also in the NFL.com Thursday news roundup.
How to read these numbers
These are model estimates from 20,000 simulations. Cover percentages are not calibrated. The backtest is 48.7% versus closing lines: no proven edge. No wagers were placed. Official Friday designations were not posted at the 3:55 AM PT cutoff, so recheck Friday and Saturday reports and inactives before any kickoff. Lines may still move.
For research and entertainment only. 21+. Not betting advice. Sports betting is not legal in every state. Check your local laws. Help is available from the National Council on Problem Gambling.
Problem gambling? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.
Featured photo: Arrowhead Stadium game day, Nov. 19, 2006, by Conman33 via Wikimedia Commons, CC BY-SA 3.0. Cropped with a short WEEK 9 MODEL CARD banner.
