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Refreshed Nov. 11, 2026, 9:27 AM PT, after the NFL Gambling Bot’s Wednesday run at about 9:14 AM PT. The model numbers below are from that run, at Washington +2.5 and a total of 41.5. Injuries and weather were refreshed Nov. 11, 1:35 PM PT, after the Wednesday game status reports. We will refresh this post again when Thursday’s inactives are posted.
The Washington Commanders visit the New York Giants on Thursday Night Football at MetLife Stadium in East Rutherford, N.J. Kickoff is 5:15 PM PT (8:15 PM ET) on Prime Video, per the NFL.com Week 10 schedule and the NFL.com game center. Washington is 2-5-1. New York is 5-2-1. Both teams are on a short week after Sunday games.
For the full matchup breakdown, read our Commanders vs. Giants TNF preview.
Who is starting at quarterback?
Jayden Daniels is expected to start for Washington. He was a full participant Monday through Wednesday with a left elbow injury and has no game designation on the Commanders' Wednesday game status report. That report lists center Lucas Patrick and tight end Colson Yankoff as out. Wide receiver Treylon Burks (foot) did not practice Wednesday, and the team had not listed a designation for him when it posted.
J.J. McCarthy is also expected to start for the Giants. He suffered a hip pointer in Sunday's win at Philadelphia, was limited Monday, and practiced fully Tuesday and Wednesday, per the Giants' Week 10 injury report. He has no game designation. Linebacker Malik Harrison (groin) is the only Giant listed as questionable. After Tuesday's practice McCarthy said he felt "really good," and the New York Post reported he will make the start. Official inactives come about 90 minutes before kickoff.
What does the market say now?
As of 9:16 AM PT Wednesday, Nov. 11, DraftKings, as listed on the ESPN odds page, has New York -2.5 / Washington +2.5 (-110) and a total of 41.5 (over -105, under -115). The same ESPN listing shows the DraftKings opener as New York -1.5 / Washington +1.5 and a total of 47.5. The Wednesday model run used that +2.5 number. If you’re new to these terms, start with our point spread explainer or our guide to moneyline bets.
What does the model say?
The Sports Hangover model’s Wednesday, Nov. 11, 9:14 AM PT run had Washington +2.5 with a 54.84% shrunk cover probability (raw 57.82%). That is below the 56% bar the model uses before it flags a play, so the model did not flag it. It ranked No. 4 in the model’s Week 10 top five. The checks disagree: the unit-EPA rating has New York by 6.3 points, which gives Washington +2.5 only about a 39% chance to cover.
There is no proven edge, and cover percentages are not calibrated. No wagers were placed.
Will weather matter?
Possibly. The Open-Meteo forecast for MetLife Stadium, pulled at 1:35 PM PT Wednesday, calls for about 50°F at the 5 PM PT hour (8 PM ET), a 61% chance of rain, wind near 12 mph, and gusts around 33 mph. Rain chances peak earlier, up to 89% around 2 PM PT, and stay between about 40% and 65% through the evening. Wind and rain flags both apply.
These are model estimates only. For research and entertainment only. 21+. Not betting advice. Sports betting is not legal in every state. Check your local laws. Help is available from the National Council on Problem Gambling and 1-800-GAMBLER.
Problem gambling? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.
Featured photo: Jayden Daniels (5) of the Washington Commanders, Oct. 5, 2025, at SoFi Stadium, by Joe Glorioso / All-Pro Reels via Wikimedia Commons, CC BY-SA 4.0.
